Weekly Weather Flash: February 12–25

KEY POINTS

US

THIS WEEK:

Warm East and Cold West; Heavy Rain and Snow in Some Areas

 

A LOOK AHEAD:

Temperatures Run Warmer; Severe Rain in the West

 

EUROPE

THIS WEEK:

Cold Air Retreats to the East; Dry Weather for Most of Europe

 

A LOOK AHEAD:

Mild Warm Weather Persists; Rain Moves Northwest to Southeast

US Week of February 12–18

Retail implications: Heavy rain and mountain snow in the West will boost sales of rainwear and other wet-weather items.

  • Last year this week, the US was warm: Temperatures in the US were the warmest for the week since 2011. Rainfall was the heaviest since 2013 and snowfall was the least since 2011. Valentine’s Day was the coldest since 2007, with below-normal rainfall and above-normal snowfall.
  • Warm in the East: Temperatures will trend warmer than last year and normal across the East for much of the week, dipping below last year’s temperatures only at the tail end of the week.
  • Cold in the West: The West will trend colder than last year throughout the week. Temperatures will be colder than normal through Valentine’s Day, but will warm up as the week progresses.
  • Rain and snow in the air: Rain will move from the Southwest across the Southern Tier during the first half of the week. Several rounds of snow will move through New England. More heavy rain and mountain snow are expected in the West mid-to-late week, with the potential for more flooding in California.

 

US Week of February 19–25

Retail implications: Presidents’ Day shoppers will have their eye on spring categories as the majority of the US trends warmer.

  • Last year this week, the US was warm: The US saw the warmest end to February since 2000. Rainfall was the most for the week since 1998. Snowfall was the least since 2000. Presidents’ Day fell a week earlier last year and was the warmest since 2005, with the most precipitation since 1998.
  • Warm across most regions: Temperatures will run warmer than last year and normal across most of the country throughout the week.
  • Falling temperatures in the West: The West Coast will see a colder trend than last year. The colder readings will push through the Central Plains and Midwest late in the week, with only the East Coast and Deep South holding on to temperatures that are warmer than last year.
  • Rain and snow: A pair of storm systems will bring rain and possibly severe weather to the Southeastern and Central US, while snow will fall from the Northern Plains to New England. The West will remain very wet early on, clearing over the second half of the week.

 

EUROPE Week of February 12–18

Retail implications: Cold and dry weather in the East will drive winter clearance.

  • Cold air eases: Cold air will retreat back into the East, with warming air spreading into the West on southwesterly winds.
  • Mostly dry: Low pressure will cause heavy rain in Iberia early in the week, while light rain and snow will push into northern Scandinavia. The rest of the week will be very dry in most areas.

 

EUROPE Week of February 19–25

Retail implications: Demand for early spring products will be somewhat boosted by continued warm temperatures.

  • Staying warm: Very mild February temperatures will persist across much of Europe. Temperatures will start out colder than last year in most areas, but the second half of the week will trend warmer than last year in Western and Central Europe.
  • Increasing rain: A slow-moving and relatively weak front will set off a long spell of rain as it drifts northwest to southeast.